The top five best-selling heat pump markets-Germany

A Brief Analysis of Europe's Heat Pump Market in 2025: Germany's Leading Role in Recovery

As 2025 draws to a close, Europe's heat pump market has shown distinct characteristics of "overall recovery with regional differentiation" after the adjustment in 2024. As a core equipment for the EU's energy transition, the market's rebound not only confirms the firm pace of green transformation but also highlights the in-depth resonance between policy-driven and market demand. Among them, the German market has become the "leader" of Europe's heat pump market with its strong growth momentum and sound industrial ecology.

From the overall perspective, Europe's heat pump market has emerged from the previous short-term downturn. According to data from the European Heat Pump Association (EHPA), in the first half of 2025, sales of heat pumps in 13 major countries accounting for 80% of the European market reached 980,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 9%, a significant rebound from the 22% decline in 2024. Behind this recovery is the joint promotion of multiple factors: at the EU level, the 55% emission reduction target by 2030 set in the "European Green Deal" and the 30 million heat pump promotion plan proposed in the "REPowerEU" strategy have established a top-level policy framework; in terms of energy security, Europe's dependence on Russian natural gas has continued to decline after the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and electricity-driven heat pumps have become the core choice for heating replacement; in terms of market demand, buildings, which account for 36% of the EU's carbon emissions, their low-carbon renovation needs have directly driven the growth of heat pump installations.

Among many European countries, the performance of the German market is particularly outstanding, worthy of being called the "engine of recovery". Data in October 2025 showed that China's heat pump exports to Germany surged by 127% year-on-year, far exceeding the 42.3% overall growth rate of the European market, which indirectly confirms the strong demand in the German market. Germany's leading advantage stems from three guarantees: first, the unprecedented intensity of policy subsidies. Through the Market Incentive Program (MAP), it provides homeowners with a subsidy of up to 35% of the installation cost. The subsidy policies in cities such as Berlin have directly reduced the financial threshold for consumers; second, the clear quantitative target. The government plans to install 6 million heat pumps by 2030, providing a clear expectation for market growth; third, the mature industrial ecology. Local enterprises such as Wohnen & Co have built a complete supply chain with technological advantages, and the introduction of high-efficiency components from China has further improved product cost-effectiveness.

Looking forward, with the implementation of the EU Heat Pump Accelerator Platform and the iteration of technologies such as low-temperature heat pumps, the European market is expected to maintain a compound annual growth rate of 19.3%, and the market size may exceed 82.6 billion US dollars by 2034. As a region with the most thorough policy implementation and the strongest market demand, Germany will continue to dominate the growth pattern of Europe's heat pump market.